CAQ and PQ neck and neck: Quebec's campaign opens under the sign of U.S. tariffs

**Two days after the official start of the election campaign, a Synopsis–La Presse poll published on August 28 puts the Coalition avenir Québec and the Parti québécois in a statistical tie, as the trade war with the United States imposes itself as the real ballot-box question four days before Canadian counter-tariffs take effect.** **A tight race from the first poll** According to data collected by the firm Synopsis for *La Presse*, the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) has 27% of voting intentions, up seven points, while the Parti québécois (PQ) slips slightly to 28%, a gap considered statistically nil by analysts given the margin of error. It is a notable reversal: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's PQ had dominated the polls for several months, but its margin has eroded considerably as the vote approaches. The Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), led by Charles Milliard, suffers the sharpest drop in this poll wave, falling to 20% after losing six points. Éric Duhaime's Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) holds at 14%, while Québec solidaire (QS), co-led by Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti, remains stable at 10%. The 450 region, Montreal's suburban belt, could prove decisive in the fight between the CAQ and the PQ, according to the poll's regional data. The election was officially called on August 27, when premier Christine Fréchette went to see Lieutenant Governor Manon Jeannotte to have the National Assembly dissolved. The campaign will run for 39 days, the maximum allowed by the election law, until the October 5 vote. Advance voting will take place on September 27 and 28, and three leaders' debates are planned: on TVA on September 15, on the Crave and Noovo platforms on September 16, then on Radio-Canada on September 23. **Trump, the campaign's "main adversary"** More than ever, an issue outside Quebec is shaping the election debate: the new customs tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration, which took effect on August 22, and the Canadian counter-tariffs announced for September 8. Christine Fréchette has made this trade confrontation the heart of her campaign, going so far as to declare that "President Trump is my main adversary." She summed up her position by saying that "the old world will not come back" and that Quebec must "adapt to this new reality," banking on the stability of her government to weather what she describes as a storm from the south. Reacting to the poll results, Ms. Fréchette said she felt "a buzz" on the ground since the campaign was called. The Parti québécois responds to this same crisis with a different proposal: independence. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon argues that a sovereign Quebec would be better placed to negotiate directly with Washington, citing the example of other small states that maintain autonomous diplomatic and trade relations with the United States. This reading of the trade crisis as an argument in favour of sovereignty distinguishes the PQ offer from that of the CAQ, which defends the constitutional status quo. The other parties offer their own responses to this same economic backdrop. The Parti libéral du Québec is banking on fears that a vote for the PQ could revive the referendum debate, an argument the party has used in previous campaigns; Charles Milliard has also warned federalist voters that "trusting Fréchette would be a mistake" in his view. Québec solidaire defends a sovereignist option with a social-democratic flavour, while the Parti conservateur du Québec favours local economic solutions rather than an approach based, in its view, on fear. **Milliard urges caution about the numbers** The PLQ's six-point drop in this poll drew a direct reaction from its leader. According to Radio-Canada, Charles Milliard invited activists and observers to "take a deep breath" in the face of this result, stressing that there are more than five weeks of campaign left before the October 5 vote. The exact reason for this drop (perception of the tariff issue, the leader's visibility, another factor) is not established with certainty in the sources available to date. **A two-speed campaign** Beyond the poll numbers, several observers note that the campaign dynamic could hinge as much on the leaders' personalities as on substantive issues, as Quebecers get to know the faces of this five-party election for 127 seats — an increase of two ridings from the previous 125-seat map. At the time of dissolution, the CAQ held 79 seats, the PLQ 18, Québec solidaire 11, the PQ 7 and the PCQ 1, with nine independent members. **What remains to be watched** With a one-point gap between the CAQ and the PQ, and a Parti libéral in difficulty, the coming weeks of the campaign — marked by the Canadian counter-tariffs taking effect on September 8 and the three leaders' debates — look decisive for the outcome of the October 5 vote.