Three weeks before the campaign is called, the budget constraint becomes a central issue

**Three weeks before the official start of the campaign and less than six weeks before the October 5 vote, a pre-election report from Quebec's Auditor General is a reminder of how thin the province's budget room is. The finding has already forced CAQ leader and premier Christine Fréchette to rule out any new tax cut during the campaign, while the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ)'s spending-cut promise is called unrealistic by several voices, including within the government itself.** Party leaders have been multiplying tours, announcements and pre-election ads since the start of the summer. But over the past few days, another player has joined the conversation: Quebec's Auditor General. Her pre-election report, published on August 17, concludes that nearly $5 billion is still missing for the province to reach the balanced budget targeted for the 2028-2029 fiscal year. That figure redraws the space in which the parties can frame their promises as the official start of the campaign approaches. **Fréchette rules out tax cuts** The first to draw public conclusions was Christine Fréchette herself. The leader of the Coalition avenir Québec, who succeeded François Legault at the head of the party and the government in the spring, said she will not commit to announcing any new tax or levy cuts during the campaign. This position contrasts with the last few years of CAQ governance, marked by repeated tax cuts. The message Ms. Fréchette is sending is one of budget caution: in a context where the balance of public finances remains uncertain, promising new fiscal giveaways would expose the government to accusations of irresponsibility. The calculation has a downside, however: by tightening its offer this way, the CAQ gives up an election argument it used in previous campaigns, at the very moment when polls show its rebound in voting intentions losing momentum. **The PCQ under fire for its spending cuts** At the other end of the spectrum, the Parti conservateur du Québec's promise to cut state spending by $47 billion over five years continues to draw reactions. Christine Fréchette called the proposal unrealistic, saying it "makes no sense" given the scale of the cuts it would mean for public services. Conservative leader Éric Duhaime defends the promise as the only path to a genuine turnaround in public finances. It is also criticized by the Parti québécois and the Parti libéral du Québec, which see it as a proposal hard to reconcile with maintaining health and education services. This debate illustrates a broader dynamic of the pre-campaign: parties must now cost their commitments within a framework where every dollar promised can be scrutinized, on pain of being accused of fiscal irresponsibility by opponents — and potentially by the independent audit bodies themselves. **A context of tight polls** This budget caution shown by the CAQ comes as the party struggles to regain the advantage in voting intentions. According to the Synopsis–La Presse poll published on August 12, the rebound of the CAQ seen over the preceding months shows signs of running out of steam, while Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti québécois keeps its lead in the race. The Parti libéral du Québec, in difficulty since the spring according to several polls, is for its part trying to stabilize its support before the official start of the campaign. In this context, every economic announcement — whether a tax-cut promise, an announced spending cut or, conversely, a reversal like Ms. Fréchette's — is scrutinized through the lens of budget credibility as much as election strategy. **What remains to be watched** The Auditor General's report, published at a pivotal moment of the pre-campaign, acts as a call to order for all the parties, which will have to present fiscal frameworks when their full platforms are unveiled in the fall. The coming weeks will show whether this budget constraint really curbs the scale of the election promises, or whether it instead shifts the debate toward how to fund the commitments, without reducing their number.